18 NUMBERS TO KEEP IN MIND FOR 2018
By: William G. Gotimer, Jr.
Most sports use numbers as their measuring stick but the analytic approach is a relatively new one for many sports. Horse racing has been about analytics for over two centuries with whole numbers, fractions and now decimals and one-hundredths used to measure each and every performance. With that in mind and to honor our new year 18’please find the following numerical observations:
- ONE is the number of $16 million races there are in the thoroughbred world and we are about to see the first in January. The Pegasus World Cup is a gaudy and bold attempt to glamorize racing and reach upscale viewers and fans. It seeks to capture the imagination of the Kentucky Derby attendees who are there for glamour and celebrity and to whom cost is of lesser consideration. That has led to a price of attendance that rivals and even exceeds the cost of attending the Kentucky derby or Breeder’s Cup.
The entry fees are complex but all participants in the race share in the betting handle, concession, admission fees and television rights. It is show business on the highest level. The inaugural running of the race was blessed with a much-anticipated re-match between the two best horse in North America – California Chrome and Arrogate. This year’s running is not as compelling as all are gunning – no pun intended – for the champ Gun Runner. Whether this is a race that will continue to capture the imagination beyond 2018 is in question but for now it is good for the sport.
- TWO ideas could make this the exposure and betting bonanza that the sport desperately needs and they both involve football. The first is to lower the take-out on this race to ten (10%) percent which is the typical take out on football bets. The second is much more grandiose – negotiate with the National Football League to run and televise the race during halftime of The Super Bowl. The current President’s tweets, notwithstanding, there is no greater exposure in the world than being associated with the Super Bowl. Halftime is now dominated by musical acts that entertain those in actual attendance and those watching the game that care little about football. No one could expect to replace this truly American pop tradition but a four-minute window after the musical presentation is available and should be enough to cut to horses in the gate and the two-minute race. With the expected increase in handle and exposure, the entry fee to the race could be increased to even purchase the four-minute window. A notation as to who owns the spot in addition to who owns the horse may be enough to justify an increased fee that would fund the time purchase from the NFL;
- THREE other ideas to add to the mix, i) the NFL would assign even numbered horses to the NFC champ, odd numbers to the AFC champ. The winning city would get to hold the race trophy for the year; ii) pre-race discussion and analysis could be had on the Super Bowl pre-game show and iii) winner of the previous year’s race get to toss the coin at the coin flip for the next year. The NFL would demand its pound of flesh but my guess is a payment of THREE percent of the handle on the race would make it work. The NFL has been masterful at tapping into all the revenue streams associated with The Super Bowl but still has not tapped into the billions bet that day, this would be a way to do that;
- FOUR the number of racetracks that should run in the winter – Gulfstream, Tampa Bay, Fairgrounds and Santa Anita;
- FIVE if you include Golden Gate;
- SIX the number years – given delays, lawsuits, permits etc. it is likely to take to refurbish Belmont Park;
- SEVEN pound apprentice allowances are outdated. There should be two levels ten pounds and five.
- EIGHT should be the race number of the feature at every track every day. Moving the feature to an earlier spot on the card to help make the Pick-6 harder to hit is short sighted and causes both confusion and diminishes the value of the feature race;
- NINE the maximum number of starters that should be permitted in any maiden race.
- Top TEN lists are good for the game and engender conversation which is always good. Fans should enjoy them but not take them too seriously;
- ELEVEN dollars is the most any drink should cost at any racetrack on any day;
- TWELVE should be the maximum number of races run at any track on any day;
- THIRTEEN to one is the expected odds on this year’s Jim Dandy winner.
- FOURTEEN is a number of full cards that will be run at Aqueduct this winter;
- FIFTEEN should be the maximum take-out on ANY bet;
- SIXTEEN is the number analysts who will insist you can’t bet odd-son favorites (hint: somebody is in fact betting odds-on favorites);
- SEVENTEEN the average number of really bad beats a full-time horse player experiences in a year. (If they claim more they are just whining)
- EIGHTEEN is the number of nights I hope all racing fans get to spend in Saratoga in 2018. The mantra “18 in 18’” is a slogan I offer to the NYRA or the Saratoga Tourist Board free of charge.Blog 3/4/17
Dan Cronin its all about the number BRISNET AND BEYER SPEED FIGURE FACTOR
So what I did was also added my take on these the last few years and added the Beyer Bris Factor and its been gold . If a horse had 3 preps they must have run a 102 Beyer or Bris before the Derby in a route race. If a horse had 2 preps then they must have run a 96 Beyer or Bris before the Derby. Why so much lower , cause the 3rd start off the layoff is a big leap forward so 96-97 is all you need. This factor is HUGE and don’t dismiss , if you look back at the Derby winner’s in the last 26 yrs it is 24 for 26 . Only Giacomo and Mine That Bird didn’t have one of the numbers either Beyer or Bris above the 97 or 102 threshold.
No horse in 23 yrs has had 4 races from Jan 1 to the Derby and not run a 105 before the Derby has won .
8 out of last 10yrs the Derby winner has had only 2 preps from Jan 1 to the Derby .
In 22 yrs only 1 horse with 3 preps or more has won the Derby with under a 102 Bris/Beyer in one of his preps. Giacomo 100 then moved forward to win .
Beyer Bris Preps
94 Go For Gin 107 105 4
95 Thunder Gulch 105 106 3
96 Grindstone 102 102 3
97 Silver Charm 110 102 3
98 Real Quiet 108 107 3
99 Charismatic 108 104 7
00 Fu Pegasus 111 110 4
01 Monarchos 105 108 4
02 War Emblem 112 109 4
03 Funny Cide 110 111 3
04 Smarty Jones 108 109 4
05 Giacomo 98 100 3
06 Barbaro 103 104 3
07 Street Sense 108 111 2
08 Big Brown 106 110 2 Drug testing hits after this season lower #s begin
09 Mine That Bird 81 90 2
10 Super Saver 98 100 2
11 Anml Kingdom 94 97 2
12 Ill Hv Another 96 102 2
13 Orb 97 102 3
14 Cal Chrome 108 106 3
15 American Ph 105 102 2
16 Nyquist 94 97 2 route only
So with this in Mind lets list as of 2/24
One Liner 102 101 may only have 2 preps
Classic Empire 102 108 may only have 2 preps
Irish War Cry 97 102
Petrov 96 97
McCraken 93 99
Mastery 91 99 may only have 2 preps
Gormley 94 102
Battalion Runner 91 96
American Anthem 94 102
Practical Joke 90 98
Tapwrit 93 97
Royal M0 94 95
Gunnevera 97 102
Mo Town 86 101
El Areeb 92 100
J Boys Echo 102 104
We really need to keep our eyes on this as we move forward we want to look for these trend horses 2 preps that are fast enough and will leap forward in 3rdstart , or we want to look for the horse that had tremendous seasoning as a 2yr old and 3 preps like Chrome or Smarty Jones. Keep your eyes open cause the numbers do matter when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, and frankly the numbers don’t lie, breeding can lie. People are way to caught up in the breeding aspect, in 2017 its about the numbers and it have been for 20 some years. Lets watch the numbers the next few weeks and see where we are before we start picking Derby horses that are slow but bred to run long.
This weekend flipped things some with Gunnevera winning and running 97 and 102 but he is going to have 3 preps it looks like as he moves onto Fla Derby or whereever he will need to continue to get faster , where J Boys Echo ran fast enough to win the Derby but if he has another prep that is 3 for him also. So he needs to continue to get faster . I am looking for that horse with 2 Preps as 8 of last 10 winners have had …..We are still looking …Blog 1/4/17
Well its official the Pegasus World Cup has done the opposite of what the intended purpose of the race was. This started out to bring out the best of the best in Horse Racing. Something Stronach and pals could be proud of, instead its become a money grab for owners across America with horse that don’t belong and certainly not doing right by the horse.For the last few years all we have heard is the rush to “do whats right by the horse” running horses fewer and fewer times , making sure they stay sound, changing tracks all over America to try to do better and better with breakdowns. Well now we reach the opposite day of Horse Racing.See the Pegasus World Cup has caused the opposite , its caused rich owners and folks that bought these spots to scramble and make side deals to get a horse any horse in the race to try to get the cheese. This has no regard for the horse and whats right for the horse.War Story and Neolithic and the two new horses now heading toward a race they have absolutely zero chance of winning. War Story and its owner you would think would have learned their lesson a few months ago in the Breeders Cup as they entered this poor horse once again in a race he had no chance in when running in thr Breeders Cup Classic .I had a short exchange on twitter with the owner of War Story as he insisted the horse had a chance and “his people” were telling him to enter in the race. I was nice and wished him luck but its time to stop being nice and call it what it is , a money grab. back on twitter he told me he wasnt an ultra rich man and needed to make good decisions with his horses to stay in the game, well the BC Classic wasnt a good decision and this decision is even worse.I dont know what side deal they made to run War Story but I sure hope its worth it, cause its not even close to doing what is right by this horse. See War Story is a nice horse and would have a decent chance in most Grade 3 events coming up this winter and spring . Its just a bad bad idea to enter this horse or any horse in races they have no chance and I cant believe the racing community hasnt said a word. We have rich people that bought spots scrambling to find anyone who will run a horse to attempt to get some of their money back, really its sad.Maybe its fear of these rich owners these publications dont want to get them mad, maybe its the fear of Stronach and their strangle hold on all the race tracks and signals and ADW’s across the country I am not sure.I for one think its time someone steps up and says something. This idea is a BAD idea.It is NOT in Neolithic or War Story’s best interest as a horse to run against these monsters. They dont fit on speed or class. The only thing that can happen is something bad. This concept is making rich people make bad decisions in the interest of money its that simple.I wish everyone luck in the Pegasus Money Grab Cup
I just hope these poor horses being treated like ticket stubs to get a seat at the table are not torn up and thrown away after this race . I hope these horses do not get ruined by owners running them in spot they dont belong . I could name 50 horses alot like this in a very short time thru the last 5 years or so like Medal Count that running in wrong races ruined them. I just hope it doesnt happen this time.War Story and Neolithic deserve better I am just glad my parents didn’t force me to play one on one with Lebron James so they could get a seat at the Cavs game.Blog 11/29/16
Hi Guys Its Turfway Time and he is my Blog and opinions on How To Beat Turfway ParkWell everyone it is Turfway Park time , the home of one of my biggest hits of my lifetime. I hit by sticking to my rules and taking a shot and on Polytrack I am convinced you need to stick to certain rules and then take shots it the only way to hit big on the Poly with these big fields.Several years ago we , my Dad and I , started to notice an outside bias on sprints at TP. The inside posts were just not doing well and the 1 hole was a death trap. I would watch result after result 12 10 11 , 10 8 7 , 9 10 7 , over and over. So on the snowy night I read the form and said man I think these 2 bombs in the 11 12 hole have a big shot , so I put them in all 3 spots in the trifecta. 1112 w 1112 w ALL, 1112 w ALL w 1112, ALL w 1112 w 1112. It didnt cost that much and both horses were over 25/1 .Well it ran 6 12 11 and the 6 was also 25/1 and I had the only ticket for $24,000 . This still ranks in one of my top hits ever. I have hit some Pick 6’s and the Ky Derby P5 last year that were bigger but this was the most satisfying one I hit for many reasons.One reason was I stuck to my rules and hit, second was I was alot smaller player back then and the $100-200 wager was a big deal for me. It launched me into writing down my rules and really sticking to them so lets go over them .Rule 1 NEVER bet the 1 Hole SprintingNow many people will tell you I am nuts , but I can tell you the numbers back me up that the 1 Hole has been under 10% for many years at TP. Going 5F the rule isnt a dead cinch. 5F is a little different and we dont stay as firm. BUT the 6F 6 1/2F are a MUST. The SHoot is terrible at TP for this bias and they almost run down a hill . The riders you will see on many night rushing to get away from the rail and turning for home they go 8 9 10 wide to get away from it. Just watch the results early in the meet. The 7 8 Holes are the best for me. In a 12 horse field I try to stay outside the 6 hole if possible but of course you have to handicap each race and if a race has a horse at a PRICE on the inside then toss him in. I will never bet straight or single a horse on the inside in a sprint at Turfway . NOW if its a 8 horse field then maybe the 3 on out is OK . But for sure stay away from the 1 hole be very scared of the 2 hole and the bigger the field the more its pronounced.Rule 2 Bet Pick4 and Bet Straight , occasional tri if you get the right fieldThe Pick 4 is 14% takeout here at TP so the payoffs are nice and the pools are decent . Betting straight is HUGE at TP cause they will hand you winners and the Star Plays usually tell the tale as we been over 40% almost every meet in the last 8 years. Turfway is trying to promote the Pick 5 so we are experimenting with it this meet to see if we can incorporate that into our wagers too. The P4 is alot like Saratoga where we single then spread like crazy and try to hit it just a few times, its the opposite of CH and Keen where we try to pound the P4 several times. Poly will get you a bomb or a strange result many times so we try to pick the hardest race and take ALL thus turning it into a Pick 3. A sample of one of my tickets is 1 times 3 times 4 times ALL $72 ,then I come back and take the top 4 horses in the last 1 times 3 times 4 times 4 $24 so if top horses win we got it a few times. If bomb drops we only need it once.Rule 3 Maker Ward are not end all be allYES Ward and Maker do well at these meets but if you look at the trainer standings the last few meets what you will find is about 25 trainers will have 6 7 8 wins. You must be willing to take some trainers you probably never heard of. Many smaller outfits from around the midwest will show up cause they cant go to Florida. They have few options in the winter with this level stock. Drury, West Jordan will all run some solid horses at this meet. Lopresti will sneak one in too sometimes.Rule 4 Shippers which ones?Look for horses with past TP wins or Poly wins at Pre Is or Woodbine. That is first and foremost Poly experience and wins on Poly. Then we go to Turf horses to Poly angle . That is huge this meet as turf horses have no where to run up here. Then we look for Churchill shippers as they will tower over the Belterra and MVR shippers, and even the Indiana shippers. So as Shippers we look for Chuchill first, then Indiana, then any rare NY or Fla shippers, Look for deep in PPS for Arlington success too , then if we must take we will look at Belterra, Hawthorne, MVR, Thistle shippers. Class matters at TP so separating the class is a big deal.Rule 5 Stalkers are the keyI have debated this for years and years with guys who insist deep closers are the way to go . The numbers just dont back it up. STALKERS horses that will be about 2-6 length off the pace are the ones who crush these races. Speed is not very successful , especially if they have an inside post going sprint distances. The route races speed has a better chance if they can get loose. Stalkers though rule the day and the night. That horse with the solid burst but that doesnt have to be way way back. If he breaks 6th and sits 6 lengths off that is perfect. We just dont want them 14 lengths out of it , its just hard with cheap horses to make up that kind of ground. Look hard for the horses in the 6 7 8 9 holes sprinting that can stalk and pounce . Look hard for the route horse in the 2 3 4 5 6 holes that can get position on first turn to sit and come around maybe 2 3 4 5 6 lengths off the pace.Good Luck ALL take a look at your rebates at Turfway they should be pretty good and enjoy. If you are heading to Turfway look me up would love to have a drink and talk horses and basketball. I should be there a few night a week. Good Luck !!Dan CroninFatBaldguyracing.comBLOG 9/6/16
2016 Saratoga Delmar Ellis Meets Finished STRONG
First of ALL of ALL the TOUTS online or in horse racing who else posts their results who posts their ROI ??
There are touts that specialize in work reports that are solid at that, but at picks they STINK.
We recently charted a few and I wont name them but lets just say they ended the meet at Saratoga in a
complete freefall. One clocker ended Saratoga with 13% winners and charged over $300 for his stuff.
Here is our FINAL STATS Saratoga 116 for 399 or 29% , Our 5 Star Plays were 5 for 5 , 4 Star Plays were 8
for 17 , our 3 Star Plays were 45 for 105 . The ROI for Star Plays finished $35.20 POSITIVE.
So that means you bet $200 on all 105 horses you profited $3520.00 for the Meet.
Now I understand that’s boring and most people don’t want to play that way. I have over 100 emails
and texts from guys that used these plays to single in P3 P4 P5 hits . One man hit 29K using our picks
and his perfect ticket making.
Ellis Park we finished 87 for 257 34% , 4 Star plays went 3 for 4 and 3 Star 24 for 56 for a WHOPPING
43% winners and ROI of 2780.00
Delmar we finished 92 for 346 27% with 4 Star plays finishing 2 for 4 and 3 Star Plays 23 for 85 , our ROI
was still positive by $8.60 .
3 Big Meets 3 Positive ROI’s .
FBG we have a strong team and we are ready for the Road to the Breeders Cup .
Talkin Tickets Handicapping Show is growing , BETPTC viewers are taking notice like the FBG members
already know, we will continue to listen to our members and viewers to evolve the show to how they
We were told 2 major things that are coming
1. More opinions not just mine
2. More exact tickets to help
3. More Price plays to add to their tickets
We will continue to grow the show and evolve and cant wait for the BETPTC Pools to begin .
These pools will be headed by me but also have opinions of top BETPTC handicappers .
To let newbie’s understand what FBG targets is simply this
1. 32% Top Pick winners this will help the casual fan have a chance when they attend and have
fun while there having a few winners each day .
2. 37% 3 Star Plays and 42% 4 Star plays and 55% 5 Star plays this is the GOAL. We have met
that each meet so far and want to continue by hitting at a high percentage this helps the
casual fan have singles and have larger wager opportunities a few times a day.
Coming in October we will have a huge menu for Keeneland Santa Anita and the Breeders Cup we are
offering BETPTC and HRN members a big discount to join FBG either short term or long term.
$39 a month for 16 months to receive every single thing a FBG member gets check the site for details.
Or Short term $199 for today ALL the way to Dec 31 st . So 4 months of picks every single track all our BC
stuff etc etc . This is exciting offer to BETPTC players .
I helped over 100 players this weekend with texts emails and calls, all my guys know I am available and I
will help and even go in with you on tickets if you need a partner I do it every weekend.BLOG 8/23/16
Saratoga Meet 28 days in and FatBaldGuyracing is having the best major meet we have had in 4yrs of doing public picks. 33 for 74 with 3 Star Plays and 10 for 14 with 4/5 Star Plays is OFF the charts . For the naysayers we also tracked the ROI based on $200 to win on the 88 plays the profit is $3850.
Off the charts success, and this don’t count the P3 P4 P5 plays and hits.
So look in the mirror ask yourself how are you playing Saratoga ?
I had a guy complain because we gave him 4 winners and the total winnings were only $21 for his $2 bets. His profit was $13. He said well anybody can do that. Really? 96% of people that bet horses lose. The truth is he lost on the day cause he bet 15 other races while waiting the 40 minutes in between races at Saratoga.
That’s a fact. We give people a chance but we cant make people bet a certain way.
If you want to just go to the track and have some fun and bet every race we know from 45 yrs of experience you will lose over time betting like this . So what chance does the public have?
We try to give 3 or so plays a day at each track, we try on weekends to give 10 plays or so around the country. I understand people want action so we show everyone how to single our Star Plays and tie them into DD P3 P4 P5 plays to be able to have action. With action though there is risk.
I had a terrible meet trying to tie the Plays to P3’s for myself , well until the last 3 Fridays over at Turfway hitting for over $20,000 . Single Spread Spread , believe in the single , if you don’t believe in your single you shouldn’t play it. Playing 2 times 2 times 3 you cant win over time . Must have a single to believe in.
We love to help people for peanuts. I hear all the time Well I aint paying for picks. But you will spend $50 for 12 gold balls because some pro says it goes further than the $15 balls. You will spend $250 on a big fat driver , and $8 a beer. We are trying to help. We get you free Bris PPS with your purchase.
It is crazy to not give us a shot.
Travers week is ONLY $29 the entire WEEK . That’s not even a good meal . That’s a cheap steak to get picks all around the country for $29 from Wed to Mon .
See what you are missing.BLOG 8/10/16
We are 16 days into the Saratoga meet and some things have become crystal clear.1. You better have info on Pletcher and Brown horses, YES they are winning but also losing 70% of the time and you need to know which ones are good singles and which ones are Terrible favorites. This is where we come in, we work our butts off to find out each day and night if this one or that one are ready.2. 1 1/8 races you better want the distance there is no faking it at the Spa, true grinder long distance horses have won every one of these dirty races.3. Inner turf better be careful taking deep closers they cant go around this meet in the Inner .4. Straight bets are a grind. Spa is handing you winners but thet are getting hammered too. Pick your spots .5. DRF Work reports have been Golden and worth every penny . I switched to them this year and cant be more impressed . Every single 2yr old race they been right on.6. The top riders are starting to pull away as we thought , when keying horses please stick to the top riders they win at a ridiculous percentage at Spa.7. Turf races speed has NOT been what it was last year , the speed has not done well, inner and melon speed is not bring big prices. Stalkers have done very well on the turf especially the inner.24 days left hope this helps our Star Plays are on Fire . We always welcome small players to join shoot us an email we will be happy to work with you. Dan@FatbaldGuyracing.comBLOG 7/20/16
Everyone gets excited about play Saratoga but then weeks later are distraught , so we are trying to help and calm the excitement into HOW do we play Saratoga and what do we do ?1. Pletcher and Brown info is utmost important . Playing, and trying to beat them is crucial as they will both win a ton of races. Anyone in the group that has info on any of these horses please share we are working our butts off to have good info. We will have 3 clockers and opinions and many other sources like owners and guys in NY .2. When to hit ALL button is CRUCIAL in NY . 2yr old grass races, NYbred claiming grass races are a couple , but grass races in general are where huge prices hit .3. Dont fall in love with the BIG name horse. They get beat every meet hell even AP got beat. Careful singling big name horses .4. Pick 4 with the huge rebates are a big way to play for me , I use the ticketmaker alot during this meet, more then usual really. When trying to hit P4, I dont go for the kill like at Keen where u try to hit $5 one , I may repeat a little but more important to single and spread like mad . 6 times during 15 meet I had 8 of 11 or 9 of 12 and lost the bet and lost HUGE hits cause of it ….gotta becareful in going deep …5. Cant chase money at Spa, if you are having a bad day, wrap it and go on, dont chase in last few races, remember there is a tomorrow .6. Saturdays—- yes everyones favorite day , remember these days are REALLY tough. Dont fire more money then usual just cause you are excited its Saturday at the Spa. The money u win on Mon and Wed still counts, the cards during the week are MUCH easier. Try to keep level head on Saturdays.7. I like to play P4 but DD and P3 are great bets at the Spa for small players, if you cant spread enough w your budget in the big P4 P5 P6 dont fret, just play the DD or the Pick 3 , they will pay very well. Dont bet a $25 P4 ticket when you can play same P3 ticket and spread more and have bigger shot to hit .8. REBATES —- the rebates at BETPTC are gigantic for the Spa , if you have other accts not paying you rebates please make sure you bet Spa thru Betptc , last yr I got $5K in rebates…..YES it helps a TON with your ROI …..some tracks the rebates are not very good like Delmar they suck but at SPA they are huge…you have to use to your advantage.9. Careful leaving the 1 hole out sprinting if they have any speed at all, last 4 meets the 1 hole for some reason has done very well and a few big longshots won races by breaking and being gone. If you are looking at a spread race careful pitching the 1 hole …10. Watch the jockeys, guys the same riders win the majority of the races and guys get pissed when good riders from Ky go 1 for 100 . Stick with the JJ, JV, Ortiz bros, Rosario, Lezcano the NY riders dominate, especially the claiming races. Dont go reaching for Leparoux, Lanerie, and the other shippers. They will win one once in a blue moon but you will lose if your key horses are being ridden by them.Good Luck our list is growing of 2 yr olds……..Keep the info coming guys
FBG members I have never been so excited about a new year coming . 2016 is going to be the best year yet for FBG and its members. Our yearly memberships are still by far the most affordable in the country and now will receive more then ever before.
OK wow what a wild and busy day at the Keeneland contest. I was asked by a longtime friend ( my backcourt mate in 1988 for LaSalle Hs BBall) who likes horses and gets our picks if I would ride with him and help and work as a team at this contest so I said I would cause he dont really bet a whole lot and 3K to him was a ton to enter this contest. He was really nervous on the drive down and I tried to calm him down with hey just play my picks with your trifecta style you like and if you get lucky then we can worry about it at the end of contest. So he is hovering around 2K at the beginning chalk filled races when the first open race comes is the 4th I told him I like 7928 but 79 best , so he goes up and makes these tri’s
Good stuff……now if he wins the BCBC then we gonna have to have a talk …………..
Well we are here we have a Triple Crown on the line, just what every race fan on earth wants, 3 weeks of complete goose bumps. We all will go over the Belmont 100 times in next 3 weeks trying to find every and any way that Pharoah can lose. I have seen stumbles , shoes come off, bad ride after bad ride , horses get pulled up for no reason and even a horse in Silver Charm that just got beat.
So how will American Pharoah lose? He sure figures to lose they all do except 11 of them right? He could get left in the gate, stumble, or Victor could grab him like he did Chrome and take away all chances at the start? By all indications he was very tired after carrying a ton of weight with the water added in and blowing the doors off them. Rain or shine that wont hurt him we know that already so the Funny Cide debacle wont happen. So what will happen?
His rider isn’t a drug addict or nut job worried about who is sleeping with who so we wont have to worry about the fix being in? Right?
His trainer isn’t a known cheater that brings his own hay so we wont have to worry about a morning scratch right? Right?
We now have barn security so no one will try to sneak into his stall throw pins in their or stick a needle in the horse. So that is over right?
All these myths or truths depending on who you listen too are all over . Right?
So How can he or will he lose?
Well IF the gate opens, IF he comes out and doesn’t get crushed , IF he is sent to the lead , Well then I think he will win.
He isn’t Smarty Jones where distance was a question since February. He isn’t Big Brown who had never been on inside before and had to deal with a starter standing on the track right in his line of sight.
He has the advantage of his riders brutal failure just last year with a miserable decision to rate a speed horse going this distance and simply got him beat by inferior horses because of rider error . His rider has learned and the Preakness was a testing point. SEND HIM YOUNG MAN. I can hear my dad screaming.
The fractions don’t matter for this horse. Get to the lead , control the pace, back it down let Carpe Diem and Materiality take their shots down the back side. Carpe is not fast enough and Materiality has documented breathing issues that will stop him on the far turn.
That leaves the dead closers.
Mubtaahij, Madefromlucky, and Frosted the 3 logical ones as the others are simply too slow .
Mubtaahij on big sandy I just cant see being anywhere in reality . Madefromlucky is a HUGE upset chance and with Pletcher and his style could be the Birdstone staggering after Pharoah in the stretch. See you have Pletcher sending Materiality to mess with Pharoah hoping Carpe or Madefromlucky can be running at the end. Team work a lot like Baffert just used at the Preakness. Now we are on Pletchers turf.
Frosted of course will be the second choice and with KM being so hot he figures on everyones radar that he could win.
So as I see this , Pharoah has 2 horses to beat and he will be 5-7 lengths in front of both with 4 furlongs to go if ridden correctly. So the chances of a Triple Crown winner are very high. The problem is we been here before and something always seems to happen. Will it finally happen? A California trainer, a foreign owner with financial issues , and a California rider, will New York allow this to happen or will some new myth or story happen again?
SO at FBG we are giving Free Picks for the next 2 weeks in the excitement, we are continuing to offer rebates to guys to sign up with BETPTC our home. Lets have a fun 2 weeks of Spot Plays and continue to stay hot , so far this year our Spot plays are 41% 134 for 330. This is hard to beat. Take advantage and come get the Free Picks www.FatBaldGuyracinjg.com Lets enjoy the ride for 3 weeks together !